Mission Creep: The Growing Cost of the Ukraine War

Europe switches from donating its stockpiles to direct purchases of arms and ammunition.

Around half of the European aid to Ukraine comes from procurement, according to a think tank. This is despite earlier reassurances that assistance would be driven by running down existing stockpiles.

Taro Nishikawa, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, claims

Europe has now procured more through new defence contracts than the United States—marking a clear shift away from drawing on arsenals toward industrial production.

While the European Union spending spree will boost defence industry revenues, it also acts as a drain on public funds. The same applies to Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the UK, all of which have a similar model in their support for Ukraine. In May and June 2025, at least €4.6 billion worth of procured military aid was sent from Europe to Ukraine (out of a €10.5 billion total). This is distinct from the U.S. Trump administration, which in effect sells its military aid to Ukraine, including a proportion paid for by the Netherlands.

Data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy data reflects a growing shift away from drawing on existing ammunition supplies, which as far back as 2003 was viewed by NATO chiefs as ‘unsustainable’ but was later considered ‘unrealistic’ once the procurement model started to gain momentum. It’s a scenario constantly criticised within the EU by Hungary, whose Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó opened 2024 by telling Brussels-based journalists:

The year is new, but the mood is old. The war psychosis of old remains. Nobody is willing to deviate from the path of a failed strategy.